War in the Caucasus, again. It began last week, and after six days of bloody fighting it seems to be over. But I'm going to blog about it because it's bothered me ever since the beginning of the war. Actually it seems nobody really wants to call it a "war", that's why they call it the "Georgia Conflict".

Well anyway, I'm going to write down my thoughts that have been going wild through my head since the first time I heard about the war over CNN a week ago.

First let me begin with a bit of a note. I am no military expert, nor did I serve in any military or law enforcement service. I never worked for the government and I am no intelligence officer of any sort. What I am, though, is an observer and a bit of a history and warfare fan. I wouldn't even call myself a history or war buff because I don't consider my knowledge on either subject to be great. But I do like to analyze things, which is why I am fascinated in both history and war.

It all started when I heard the conflicting ideas on who started the war. Russia claimed Georgia started the war, while Georgia claimed that Russian bombers were the first to initiate contact. I was immediately troubled by that, especially following the disturbing scenes of Russian forces moving into Georgia in droves.

Apparently the war is supposedly about a small disputed province called South Ossetia, in Georgian borders (North Ossetia is Russian territory). Now, this would've been all completely acceptable except for the ridiculous number of forces mobilized by Russia to invade such a small country. Provided that Georgia itself has a formidable army mobilized at the time of over 3000 soldiers, about 100 tanks and many armored vehicles, Russia outnumbered them by a huge amount with more than 10,000 soldiers 150 tanks and hundreds of armored vehicles, and not to mention air superiority (I saw it on CNN but I can't find the article on it to fortify the numbers).

As a student of war like myself, and I think at least some of the professional military analysts out there would probably agree, I find it hard to believe that such a massive, aggressive and sudden troop deployment would be done for such a small province as South Ossetia. There has to be some kind of ulterior motive, one which is yet unclear to me.

People are hesitant to call this a "war" just yet for many reasons. One reason is the fact that the people that are calling this a "conflict" rather than a "war" are the American and other Western politicians. The Americans don't want to call this a war because they openly support Georgia, yet believe that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is America's friend (and Putin feels the same way about America). America does not want to go to war with Russia right now, and though some of the countries that broke away from the hostile grip of the former Soviet Union such as Poland and the Baltic countries want to do something about it, they're thinking smart and not doing anything rash, just the same as how America is responding as of the time of this writing.

As soon as I heard the news of this happening some time last week, I looked at the map because to be honest I didn't really know where Georgia was exactly. I knew it was around the Russian territories but I didn't know its specific geological location. I was very much surprised to see that Georgia lies directly in between Russia and the countries that would link it to Iran (namely Turkey and Armenia). I'm not sure if this means anything honestly, and again, I have to reitterate that I'm not in any way any military expert, but as soon as I saw that, I felt that Russia wanted a firm military hold of the entire region to allow them free access into Iran, their ally in a now growing threat of nuclear arms development.

Now, I'm following everything I can with this war despite my full-time job, via the news and the internet. I began writing this entry this morning at around 9:30 AM (GMT +8), just hours after a "ceasefire" was called as mediated by the French. The terms of the ceasefire favored Moscow heavily in my opinion, but at the very least it should have meant silence on both sides because it required the pulling out of all military forces into their original positions prior to the war. Not intentionally being cynical, but I did not believe that this ceasefire would hold. Russia mobilized such a large number of troops and armor, I don't think it will end with such flimsy ceasefire terms. They're after something. I don't know if it's what I suspect it to be (control over the region for unmonitored access to Iran; remember that Georgia is being watched by the U.N. and NATO), or something completely different. But I think they won't stop until they get it.


Now that alone was enough to disturb me and my analysis of the war. But suddenly, just hours after that ceasefire was agreed upon, at the time of this writing, Russian forces are being spotted "in violation" of these ceasefire terms. The first time I heard the news was over the radio, at around 6:30 PM, where hundreds or even thousands of Russian troops in military trucks and armored personnel carriers were spotted miles south of South Ossetia, where they were supposed to stay, into the town of Gori, and travelling southeastward in a column towards Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, in what I estimate to be about 40-50 miles away (it may be more or less, I'm just guessing). Now this is a clear violation of the ceasefire terms because the terms involved having Russia pull its troops back across the border and back into Russia.

As of the time of this writing, which is now 8:50 PM (I started about 20 minutes ago as well), it is still unclear to me what will happen. But if the events unfold as I see it, from a strategic and political standpoint, this won't be good. We could be looking at a big war here.

I will continue to blog on this matter as much as I can, with as much information as I can gather. Just take note that I am not a professional journalist or military analyst. Just some guy who is disturbed by what's happening that felt like writing down his thoughts on the matter before it's too late.

- edit: I may have to note that I began writing this at work at 9:30 AM Philippine time, but had business to attend to and so saved it as a draft. I resumed writing this when I got home, as seen in the second half of this post.